Quote:
Originally Posted by DoubleF
I agree with your hindsight, but disagree that the 2021 foresight was logical.
I'm financially literate and I keep up to date on things. There was no way I was expecting us to more than double the rates from 2021 to 2022. Others were the same and if you suspected that in 2021, most people would have likely called you paranoid.
The issue wasn't that we didn't expect rates to go up. It was that in 2021 we didn't expect it to "at worst" go up more than 1-2% total in 2022. We are currently exceeding that 2% "super worst case scenario" that most people probably thought and still moving up.
Yes, some of the lunacy of that time was also that "why park your cash and pay 1.2% less when you can easily make 10-20% on the market in a few weeks or months?" Those investments crashed AND many people technically took on extra leverage to do it... it was a double whammy.
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I guess I'm saying that I thought it was dumb to hazard an 'educated guess' at that time. Uncertainty seemed obvious. If I had to hazard a guess I'd see a pretty simple bell curve with 'modest increase' (whatever that means) at the peak. Attach whatever shape you want, but in my mind it was:
25% - status quo = variable slight win
50% - small increase = it's a wash
25% - bigger increases = variable slight to massive lose
There was just so much more risk than reward at the fringes.