Some interesting info from my PD day yesterday, mainly from the Sagen economist. (Sagen is one of the three insurers in Canada, along with CMHC and CG)
- 48% of insured mortgages in 2021 were variable rates (staggering!)
- Sagen is now allowing "those in financial distress" to increase amortizations up to 35 and potentially 40 years. OSFI and lenders are on board with this
- Mortgage defaults were at all time lows the last couple years with where interest rates were. Lenders put aside money for defaults, and didn't need to touch it. Defaults are expected to increase in the next couple years of course, but overall, it should average out
- OSFI looking into making some other changes as well
- Home prices in AB expected to remain stable, especially compared to the rest of the country. Net migration is good, as is GDP. Interesting to note the vast majority are migrating to Edmonton as opposed to Calgary, due mostly to the variety of industries. Calgary still with more direct ties to O&G.
- Expectation is BoC will raise the overnight by another 0.50-0.75% by end of year, and then predict it to remain flat into 2024
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