[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I don't see Russia giving up control of Crimea. If there was anything that would lead to them using tactical nuclear weapons, it's probably that. And really, even pre-2014 there wasn't a whole lot of support there for the status quo, so I'm not sure it's really worth the downside risk to try to re-take control of a region that was already pretty iffy on remaining part of Ukraine.

If there is a negotiated settlement, I think it'll probably look something like this:

-status quo on Crimea (Ukraine doesn't recognize Russia's occupation, but doesn't demand it back as part of negotiations)
-large measure of autonomy/independence for the Donbas region, but the area is not absorbed into Russia.
-other occupied areas are returned to Ukraine
-Ukraine pledges to not join NATO and/or host NATO forces/bases
-Ukraine is free to join the EU
-strong security guarantees for Ukraine from NATO
-some sanctions on Russia removed (though I doubt all would be).

People may view that as a failure, but I don't really see any other way out that doesn't either mean a significant risk of escalation or a protracted, years-long conflict with potentially hundreds of thousands of deaths. Now obviously Russia has to be willing to negotiate, so if they're not, they're not. But I do think there's a real lack of emphasis from NATO being placed on the importance of diplomacy.

And as for encouraging Russia to do the same later or appeasing them, I don't see Russia being able to rebuild its military during peacetime at remotely the same pace that NATO-supported countries can. If Ukraine had a period of peace, they could fully transition their forces to NATO weapons and get some of the things that the US has been hesitant to supply during an active conflict (ATACMS, F-16s, tanks, etc.). Meanwhile Russia will be incapable of even replacing what they've lost, never mind strengthening their forces.

I suspect you are right on the end point but I don't think Russia would accept it now. They control the vast majority of that region now so why give it up unless the population gets annoyed with the war.