Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor
If there is a negotiated settlement, I think it'll probably look something like this:
-status quo on Crimea (Ukraine doesn't recognize Russia's occupation, but doesn't demand it back as part of negotiations)
-large measure of autonomy/independence for the Donbas region, but the area is not absorbed into Russia.
-other occupied areas are returned to Ukraine
-Ukraine pledges to not join NATO and/or host NATO forces/bases
-Ukraine is free to join the EU
-strong security guarantees for Ukraine from NATO
-some sanctions on Russia removed (though I doubt all would be).
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This is likely a very realistic version of what peace might look like - unfortunately it just kicks the ball down the road. Leaving Russia occupying Crimea without Ukrainian recognition leaves a festering diplomatic sore that would result in war again. Likely each side would take 5-10 years to arm up with the full intention of resuming the conflict.