Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda
The only deterrent against nuclear war is the same as it's always been, mutual annihilation. Hopefully if Putin is so far deranged as to forget that or not care, then someone else in the hierarchy between him and the button does remember and refuses to carry out the order
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I don't have much faith in the hierarchy between Putin and the button. Governments like Russia and the USA for that matter, have done a lot of research on the psychological aspect of following orders that I think they know how to make it happen if they want. From what I read, the steps between ordering the nuclear strike to the people in the field that actually make it happen, are laid out in such a way that no one involved will really feel like they are doing anything extraordinary. Think about how a firing squad will have some shooter with blanks to remove the guilt or moral reservations someone has. Kind of like that, but on a more complex scale. Add to that, the level of automation involved now that may force a launch based on pre-determined conditions. For example, Putin might put them in a state of ready where a launch automatically occurs after a certain amount of time unless some type of variable changes or he physically does something like entering a password that only he knows. People around him might think, well no problem, there is plenty of time to ensure the required variables occur and we can always pressure him to call it off if we need to. The urgency could be removed and if there is something humans love, it is buying time until it is too late. If someone were to stop it after Putin made the order, I think it would need to be immediate action to remove him, and I don't have a lot of faith in that.
The thing that scares me is that mutually assured destruction is a scenario almost certain to play out one day. Whether it is tomorrow or 200 years from now, I don't know, but I think it is only a matter of time until someone fanatical and bitter enough comes along and puts things in motion. Think about the kind of people who do mass shooting, suicide bombings, murder suicides of their families. Whether that is Putin or not, I don't know, but I wouldn't be shocked. Eventually, someone will come into power somewhere who is deranged enough though, in my opinion.
To make matters even worse, there is concern that a level of AI may be used one day, if it isn't already, to decide whether or not to launch. That scares the crap out of me.