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opendoor · 09-22-2022, 07:21 PM

I don't know, I think people are underestimating just how much had to go wrong and how many poor decisions had to be made to drive the '70s inflation for that long.

Just to put things in perspective, between late 1971 and early 1983 (a more than 11-year period) there was only 1 time where the month-over-month inflation was negative in Canada. That was September 1978 where MoM inflation was -0.3%. The next times that happened after that were in January 1983 (-0.2%) and December 1990 (-0.1%). In contrast, we had -0.3% MoM inflation in August, which was the 2nd time in the last 9 months it was negative.

In the US, over that same period in the '70s and early '80s there wasn't a single month where the seasonally adjusted CPI declined. Yet they saw it decline (very slightly) in July of this year.

So both countries went more than a decade in the '70s and early '80s with essentially zero monthly declines in the CPI, but a few months into quantitative tightening now and they're already seeing what would have been unthinkable back then. Canada has already seen as many negative CPI months in the last 9 months as it saw in the more than 15 year period between 1973 and 1989.

09-22-2022, 07:21 PM	#357
opendoor Franchise Player Join Date: Apr 2007 Exp:	I don't know, I think people are underestimating just how much had to go wrong and how many poor decisions had to be made to drive the '70s inflation for that long. Just to put things in perspective, between late 1971 and early 1983 (a more than 11-year period) there was only 1 time where the month-over-month inflation was negative in Canada. That was September 1978 where MoM inflation was -0.3%. The next times that happened after that were in January 1983 (-0.2%) and December 1990 (-0.1%). In contrast, we had -0.3% MoM inflation in August, which was the 2nd time in the last 9 months it was negative. In the US, over that same period in the '70s and early '80s there wasn't a single month where the seasonally adjusted CPI declined. Yet they saw it decline (very slightly) in July of this year. So both countries went more than a decade in the '70s and early '80s with essentially zero monthly declines in the CPI, but a few months into quantitative tightening now and they're already seeing what would have been unthinkable back then. Canada has already seen as many negative CPI months in the last 9 months as it saw in the more than 15 year period between 1973 and 1989.