Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor
What a useless chart. "Here's 20 countries from 1980 to drag the average way up." If you look at the more recent ones you have:
Ireland: Went above 5% in 2000, but dropped to 3.49% by 2003. Yes it took 9 years to finally get under 2%, but they were in the 2.5-4% range basically that entire time from 2003-2008.
United States: Went above 5% in 1990, but dropped to 3% by 1992 and stayed low.
Switzerland: Briefly went above 5% in 1990 and 1991 but dropped quickly and was near deflation territory by 1994.
Germany: Went over 5% in 1992 after reunification but was just over 2% 2 years later.
Netherlands: As near as I can tell, they never went above 5% in the early '00s, but in any case they were back to 2.1% 2 years later.
So outside of the energy crisis in the 1970s, it has taken countries from that list about 2-3 years to get back in the target range which is probably a reasonable expectation for us now.
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I admire your optimism and I hope you’re right, however given the global lack of investment in oil and gas exploration over the last 7 years I believe we are going to see a prolonged period of significantly elevated energy prices that will continue to fuel inflation. I don’t think we’ll see the same magnitude as Volker, but the Fed is likely going to have to get more aggressive to slay the inflation beast that has been created.