Quote:
Originally Posted by Leondros
My argument is we are much more sensitive to increase in energy costs than we were 40 years ago so a 2 - 5 bagger on oil from $50 is going to have an equal or greater impact than in the good old days.
|
I disagree the economy is more sensitive to oil prices, quite the opposite imo. The percentage of global GDP that is oil related has been constantly declining for years. Both because improvements in technology have kept prices low and because efficiency gains have been significant. Also, the change in industrial composition has been significant as well - the industries we had in the 70s all still exist and efficiency has gone up, but most of the new industries created since then (eg, everything tech) have very low levels of oil as inputs.