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Originally Posted by Enoch Root
I think Scorp is right, and I also think Devo hit the nail on the head.
Advanced stat guys very often come across as "hey, I respect your opinion and all that, but now I am going to explain to you what is really happening here". Many of the true believers are way over-indoctrinated, and jfresh would probably qualify on that front, IMO.
Stats guys put way too much credence in their numbers, but then they often top it off with the holier than thou condescension.
As someone who spent an entire career waist-deep in stats, where one of the most important things is filtering out all of the noise and the data mining, and following the doctrine that you can never really be certain with the results, watching these guys be so in love with their numbers, which are so riddled with noise, can be pretty painful.
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I think that it's a natural human trait to look towards something that feels more certain and quantifiable in the face of uncertainty. It's why humans generally speaking are terrible at evaluating statistics. I think advanced stats are having their moment so people probably take the measures seriously (too seriously?). I also think that it's an interesting development in professional sports. Being able to quantify how a player affects the game in ways beyond points, penalty minutes, and plus minus - albeit imperfectly - is interesting and fun for fans to look at.
I agree that perhaps we forget to remind ourselves that there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. We all look at the WAR% and (I at least always) fail to recognize that it is an aggregate of other advanced stats. That's why I appreciate Bingo's write-ups as he sets out the ones important to him and talks about trends versus the eye-test.