Quote:
Originally Posted by Firebot
On a side note, Azerbaijan's invasion of Armenia isn't just a footnote to this crisis. It's picking up steam and If Russia is unable to protect Armenia which is protected under it's own version of NATO called CSTO, it severely undermines the so called post soviet bloc that Putin boasted about. Armenia has officially invoked article 4 of the CSTO charter (similar to NATO's article 5). Reports of Azerbaijan troops firing on Russian FSB officers there.
Georgia is also doing a referendum on if the public wants to go to war. Most likely they want to retake Abkhazia and South Ossetia which was stolen from them by Russia during the Georgia War.
With Russia being severely weakened by Putin's folly, its neighbors are smelling blood and taking advantage. Will there be a Chechen civil war (lots of Chechen fighting on the side of Ukraine right now)? How long before Kazakhstan pulls something as well.
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Well it's a footnote
so far, but you're right, it's worth paying attention to.
Putin has been playing kingmaker in Caucasia and Central-Asia wherever he can, which means there are likely people and groups in those areas reconsidering their alliances and chances to take power right now.
Additionally, when people are talking (mostly jokingly) about the West or China taking advantage of Russia's current military weakness, I think there's a good chance other powers might try to use the opportunity to move Russia's southern neighbours from Russia's sphere of influence into their own.
That after all is the typical way of superpowers, proxy wars and wars of influence instead of direct ones.
As I'm sure everyone knows, the typical way to do that is to pick a side in an already existing local conflict and give them a little push financially and/or in weapons deliveries.