In reality it probably comes down to:
If we are in a recession, have job losses, high interest rates, inflation and crashing homes prices then PP will blame the Liberals and has a decent chance to win as these are what most people care about and most people don't pay much attention to anything else.
They will hear sound bites that Trudeau ruined the economy and PP will bring back jobs, lower inflation, etc
If Canada is doing well economically the Liberals will trot out how they saved the economy after Covid.
As much as people think the other issues play a big part, usually people vote in their best interests with paying the bills being their #1 concern.
No different then how Trump got elected , PP will follow a similar election strategy
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