A contract like this is definitely high risk, high reward. You really have to put faith in your pro scouts and talent evaluators for it to really pay off. For those wondering why they didn't wait until midway through the season, if he has 20 goals by Christmas, the ask likely goes way up.
A couple of comparables to me here are Draisaitl who only had one 70+ point season when he signed his $8.5 million deal in 2017. That one I really questioned at the time but looks like great value now. Another is Jack Hughes, who signed for 8x8. That one was actually way more questionable than Thompson as Hughes' best season was 31 points. It's looking like that one may end up being good value as well (if he can stay healthy).
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