Quote:
Originally Posted by Eb0la11
Coronato will be an impact player in the NHL. A top 3-4 forward on most teams in terms of offensive contribution.
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Speaking of computer models, just today I was reading
an article by Chace McCallum which suggests, on the basis of pretty strong correlations in the data, that NHL scouts are underrating the value of offensive production by prospects. Players with a very high NHLe in their draft year tend to overperform compared to the average for their draft position, those with a low NHLe tend to underperform.
It reminds me of the situation in MLB scouting when
Moneyball was written. Scouts were trying to assess whether players had the tools that meant they
ought to perform well at the MLB level. Billy Beane looked at whether they actually
did perform at the level where they were playing. It turned out that he was right a lot more often than the scouts were. MLB teams were underrating counting stats, just as NHL teams have been doing more recently.
Coronato's NHLe isn't off the charts, but it's exceptionally good for a late 1st-round pick. That suggests a good probability that he'll outperform his draft position. Patrick Bacon at TopDownHockey, after Coronato's draft year, gave him a 45% chance of being a star and 84% chance of being an NHLer. Only three rated prospects from that draft year had higher star probabilities: Eklund, Sillinger, and Guenther. That seems to me to be a reasonably well-founded assessment. (Incidentally, I like Bacon's formula for determining who counts as a star.)