The difference this time is that in a generation, their population will begin to decline VERY rapidly. Their traditional solution to any problem was to throw bodies at it. They were running out of bodies before the war, and in the coming years their population will decline massively. It's happening in all western countries, of course, but at least people immigrate to the West. Ain't no one immigrating to Putinland.
This Ukraine business will drag on, sanctions will stick and increase, and Russia will unravel. But instead of bouncing back after a baby boom or something, it'll be whoops, we have 100 million geriatrics and only 10 million young people.
They will be in a world of hurt, and it'll look good on them. Except it's going to take a solid 25-50 years for Russia to truly fall to its knees.
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