Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
I’m not sure how I made this personal. Your just wrong and keep doubling down.
As I said in my first or second post if you say there is only evidence for humans and I believe in the rare earth hypothesis then your statement is fine. I disagree with you but it’s certainly a fun discussion.
But if you don’t believe in rare earth then it’s not equally likely because in conditions of the universe where there is more than 1 intelligent species there will me many more that 1 based on the number of stars in the universe.
So you are just logically wrong. The equally likely case doesn’t exist.
I’m not sure why you can’t just be less specific and just say it’s possible.
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Again, I don’t know why I have to repeat this, but the two things at play are:
- human technology is the most advanced in the universe
- human technology is not strong and is in its infancy on a galactic scale
First we have to admit we don’t know either of these things.
Then, we have to admit that we have zero evidence of life outside our own planet and everything that follows (intelligent life, advanced technology, etc). So, anything relating to any alien life is hypothetical or based on conjecture or assumption or whatever.
Third, if we don’t have any evidence ANY of that exists, we can’t possibly (with any accuracy at all) take any concrete positions on the probability or likelihood of the thing we don’t know existing, existing but even better than the thing we know exists. It would make zero sense to do so.
So, if the best we can do is guess, then I’m happy to say the two things above are equally likely in a completely generic, hypothetical sense. They might be equally likely in the sense that they are both totally unlikely. Doesn’t really matter to me.
I already listed multiple things that were “possible” and said repeatedly this is meant to be generic and hypothetical, so I don’t know why you are so stuck on the word. It’s equally annoying to have you repeat an equation that relies on unknown pieces and assumptions and acting like it’s an authoritative example on what is or isn’t possible. The Drake equation is meant to encourage discussion, not be used to shut it down as though it’s some definitive truth. Why would you use it that way? lol. I thought you made it personal when you said I was acting stupid. I’m not acting stupid. I’m assuming you and Lanny know more than me since you’re so confident in how wrong I am but neither of you are actually proving me wrong beyond “my guess is different than yours,” which is totally fine!