Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor
No, that's a rule of thumb and is certainly not the definition in the US. If that were true 100% of the time, then that means there were no recessions in the US in 1960, 1970, 1980, and 2001.
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Okay, we'll use the NBER definition, which widens the criteria but still likes to use the six month time period.
The 1960 one is interesting because unemployment didn't peak until much later.
Basically though my point is that if there is two consecutive quarters of contraction monetary easing should be considered. Certainly the bond market feels like it's going to happen.