Quote:
Originally Posted by MarchHare
That's not what I'm saying at all. My scenario is precisely about winning a majority government, not the popular vote.
Let's imagine a single riding, Calgary-Glenmore. Let's suppose in a pure two-way race the UCP would beat the NDP 55-45 in that riding. Now let's suppose a third party enters the race, the People's Freedumb Party. This new party manages to gain a bit of traction and support with far-right extremists. They pull away 15% of the vote from the UCP in Calgary-Glenmore. That's not enough to win the riding themselves, but it's enough to make the UCP go from winning the riding by ten points to losing it by 5 points, flipping a seat from the UCP to the NDP.
Now multiply that same effect across every Alberta riding. The People's Freedumb Party might not win a single seat in the legislature, but they might pull enough votes away from the UCP to make an NDP election viable.
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Sure, I agree that's plausible. But the original point was that a minority government (of either party) is very unlikely. Your scenario doesn't change that, because for anyone to have a minority there needs to be a third party winning seats.