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Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame
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It is somewhat surprising that he has some of those ridings as solid UCP.
Strathcona-Sherwood Park was won by the NDP in 2015 with 42.6% of the vote. Last election in a wave election the UCP won it with 52.5% of the vote in an election where the UCP got 54.9% of the vote. If their share of the vote drops to 46% any reasonable read of that riding says it is a toss up, because that riding will perform below provincial average for the UCP.
Morinville St Alberta is another solid blue riding he has that is like that. UCP got 50% of the vote there last election, 4.9% below provincial average. Any province wide result below 46% for the UCP makes that a likely NDP riding.
The green category is at least 2 ridings bigger and I would say the NDP are the current favourites in more of those ridings than not.