Quote:
Originally Posted by powderjunkie
Fair, and I'd tend to agree, but overall I just don't think there is much daylight in between them at all.
Don't have a sub so can't read the article, but it really depends on the criteria. Unless a guy signs it between age ~21-25, I think you should generally assume a 7-8 yr deal has negative value at the end, and also generally less trade value throughout.
Obviously a lot depends on where your team is in their cycle, but in most cases I'd take a shorter team great AAV over a long-term 'fair' AAV as it gives so much more flexibility.
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The American TV contracts are up after year 5 of an 8 year deal. You can reasonably expect the value of those contracts to go significantly up at that time if history is an indicator. The Canadian deal is up at the end of year 3 of a 8 year deal. That deal also likely goes up. Sports betting will likely start adding significant revenue. It is reasonable to think that on the backend of a 8 year deal that the cap (along with just general societal inflationary effects) will be around 100 million or more once, which makes the backend years more manageable. Player debt is also projected to be paid off by the end of year 2 of the deal, at which time that will put upward pressure on the cap.