I think vaccine effectiveness vs the unvaccinated population is almost not worth discussing anymore. If you haven’t gotten vaccinated yet you likely aren’t.
So discussions as you said that are biased by being unable to distinguish between unvaccinated and uninfected to infected just leads to understating the effectiveness which in turn could suppress booster uptick.
The only question worth trying to answer is how much does an additional dose add additional protection relative to not getting an additional dose. This is because people making a decision today on whether to get a booster or not are already vaccinated so it doesn’t matter how effective the vaccine is vs an unvaccinated person.
Do I reduce my risk of mortality by getting a 4th dose or if I haven’t gotten a 3rd dose yet, a third.
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