Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
Yeah we don't know what the asks or offers were last year...but Flames should have been comfortable with $8M-$9M last year.
It's easy to get caught up in the negotiations in the moment but really anything above $9.5M for 8 years for a 29 year old winger was a pretty big overpayment.
Look at Gaudreau's 82 point pace season by season for his career
14/15: 65
15/16: 81
16-17: 70
17-18: 86
18-19: 99
19-20: 68
20-21: 72
21-22: 115
Career: 83 points per 82 games. (This was 79 points per 82 before his career year last year).
So really this season was a big outlier to be honest, and if you give him $10.5M you are paying for what was an outlier season.
Looking at his career as a whole Gaudreau is likely more of a guy that's 75 points in a bad year, and more realistically 95 points in a good year.
So depending on the ask last year it really does feel like the Flames should have been willing to lock up Gaudreau for around $8M per season in the 2021 offseason.
However we don't know what the asks were. Maybe Flames did offer $8M and Gaudreau wanted $9.5M last year, and I could see why the Flames wouldn't have wanted to do that.
In hindsight it does feel like a miss but things are always easier with the benefit of hindsight.
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Like you say - hindsight makes it obvious, but last year you are a guy hitting his late 20s and showing a decline. He's also a guy who from we know has never had the greatest diet and work out habits. Guys like that can decline fast and young.
Dany Heatley comes to mind. He went from a 50 goal/100 point guy at 25/26, declined a bit to a 40 goal/PPG guy at 27-29 and then was done as NHLer at 33.