Quote:
Originally Posted by yourbestfriend
Fair point - can do some sensitivity analysis. Assuming 10% changes in performance from his last year.
Unfavorable: 61pts
Base case: 68pts
Favorable: 75pts
A regression means you're paying $7.9M for a 60pt player. Not ideal, but also not the worst thing in the world. For reference, we are paying Coleman $4.9M for 33pts.
The analysis also doesn't take into account that he's going to be playing with some combination of Stutzle, Tkachuk, Batherson, Debrincat or Giroux. Playing with talent like that, on a PPG basis, it would be surprising if he didn't at least replicate this past years performance.
Is this deal a gamble? Absolutely. But IMO it's going to pay off for Ottawa. I guess we'll see what happens.
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Points aren't everything...Coleman brings a lot more to the table.
He was also a UFA with no acquisition cost. If/When the Sens are actually good they will want to bring in a Coleman. Heck they just gave a guy 6.5M/year until he is 38