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Old 07-13-2022, 04:50 PM   #133
opendoor
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That was one of the mistakes they kept making in the '70s. They raised rates, inflation lowered, and then they lowered rates soon after to spur the economy. It got them out of their recessions, but then inflation came back stronger each time. Finally in the '80s they kept rates ridiculously high for years after inflation subsided to finally kill it (that was when you could get 6-7% returns on GICs after inflation).

But macroeconomic conditions were a lot different then, so that doesn't mean the same thing needs to happen now. They were still drastically increasing the money supply through that period, so as long as they don't do that again, elevated rates for a prolonged period might not be needed. Still, there is always the risk of lowering rates too soon. But whether they have the wherewithal to keep rates higher during a recession in order to be sure inflation is tamed is an open question. I suspect not, and bond markets seem to agree. Hopefully it is just supply crunches causing current inflation, which would mean there's less of a risk when inducing demand through lower rates.
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