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Old 07-11-2022, 10:05 AM   #7011
The Cobra
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Join Date: Jun 2017
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dustygoon View Post
Going through Capfriendly numbers...sorting by percent of cap at time of signing and then filtering for.....

- wingers
- signed in last few years

You can see why Flames could be offering that 9.5mm number (11.5% of cap), and will need to come up.

Marner isn't a great comparable i don't think since he was 22 and it was a 6 year deal (13.4% of cap).

Kucherov, Stone and Point were all recently signed wingers near JG's age (i'm assuming Point is more winger than centre) at $9.5mm and were all just under 12% of cap, but those are tax friendly states, so we need to be higher.

The best comparable for the upper range is Panarin's 7 year deal proform'd to an 8 year equivalent. That equates to $10.14mm or 12.5% of cap at time of signing. That means Johnny would be $10.3mm using 12.5% of today's cap. We can argue who is better, but i think $10.5mm would be a reasonable upper limit.

That is of course unless Johnny's comps should include centers.

If another team is going to beat $10.5mm, then they need to be offering +$12mm over 7 years which is over 14.5% of the cap. Only guys signed to that dough in modern era? McD and Matthews (Toews, Kane and Crosby are over 14.5% but those are older contracts).

Sorry for all the numbo jumbo, but just trying to frame this argument....I think there is a good chance that Johnny comes down. I don't see another team beating our offer if we go to $10.5mm.
You are assuming that comparables matter to Johnny or any team chasing him. They can be simply ignored by any team at their will, especially if leverage is completely on one side.
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