Quote:
Originally Posted by Major Major
Lol, refuses to consider probability, makes snap judgements on 3 players based on gut feel and doesn't like "going into detail".
Nothing wrong with having an opinion but beyond me why anyone would listen.
|
Do you really think if I got into probability that it would attract a lot of attention? I could do a 5 page assessment with full stats but guess what, math doesn't bring the boys from the yard.
It doesn't take all of that to understand the concept of building for the future. And I know if I did all that nobody would read it.
To save you the suspense, data is overwhelmingly in favor of more playoff success for teams that consistently invest in their future and picks. Obviously. Not shocking.
The argument here is that many don't care because they thought the incredibly small chance we had of winning this year was more important than screwing us over for the next 10.
Do they really think the math works? They don't and they don't care. They are just more interested right now in this year than the next 10. And so is the GM because that is how his contract works
P.s..
Here's quick math for you, which is vastly more than needed:
Flames had about an 8% chance of winning this year. Let's make it 10% for giggles, and ignore the qualitative issues with how the team is composed.
What chance does every team have of winning over the next 10 years? 28%.
So when we sell a pick for a playoff run, we're actually attacking the larger 28% and lowering it, so we can raise the "10%" (never was as high as 10).
Not smart (unless you don't plan on being a fan for 10 years).
You're welcome. (great teams work hard and invest in their future so at any given time their 10-year probability is effectively above 50%, not just the dice-given 28%. You can't do that if you throw away picks)