Quote:
Originally Posted by IamNotKenKing
By what I interpret to be your logic, every single trade is bad if it does not result in a cup win that year, or within X years, with X not defined.
That means 97% of this year's trade deadline trades were "bad". That is ridiculous. (My cursory review showed 33 trades on trade deadline day, Avs made 1, therefor 32/33 were bad.)
Every trade is an attempt to make each team better, either now, or later, but as we all know, only one team wins the Cup every year. Every trade is an attempt to increases the chances at a Cup. Again either that year or in future year or years.
Also, what is the definition of "favourite" to win the Cup? Should a team only make a trade if they are 5-1 or better odds? 4-1? 1.9-1? What is the magic number? When are those odds to be assessed? At the trade deadline? One week before? Two weeks before?
The day leading into the playoffs, DraftKings' odds had:
Avs at +350;
Panthers +550
Flames +800
Leafs +900
The Avs were the favourites, then the Panthers, then us. The Flames were 3rd. That makes us A favourite. Not THE favourite, as that is the Avs, but A favourite. Were only the Avs allowed to make trades?
Much of what you are saying or suggesting is so black and white as to be nonsensical.
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No offense but you just fired like 12 questions at me and if I were to respond fully to each one this thread would be another 3 pages. Also, almost all of your questions I've already answered via other people asking effectively the same thing.
Trades either build your future, sacrifice your future, or are neutral in that regard.
Most of the trades the Flames make, sacrifice their future, which is ultimately the same reason that they will never be cup favorites. They can't get ahead of themselves. Decisions made 5 years ago put us behind Colorado. Decisions being made now hurt us 5 years out.
I don't think of it in terms of odds. I think of it in terms of:
Best player: Gaudreau. Inneffective in playoffs, especially against contending teams
Best Dman: Tanev. Nobody's winning a cup with that.
Best Goalie: Markstrom. More debatable than the first two, but I've never seen playoff promise here.
That's all I need to know really. Sure you could go into far greater detail but if you know your scoring is going to drop right off and you have no way of defending against the NHL's top scorers, well, you're not a cup favourite. We got there by literally trading away all our best D, ignoring top D in the draft as well, for short term gratifications. The only player we really have committed to (Gaudreau) is a regular season wonder.
Anyway I've answered that a lot, we all know it's true.
97% of trades? most trades have a winner and a loser. In most cases the team sacrificing its future is the loser. They are simply gambling, and we know the long term outcome of that. It's like saying 99% of lotto buyers won't come out ahead. What...99%? that's ridiculous. Surely if it were that bad people wouldn't do it..
Yes, giving away draft picks is pretty black and white, you're right about that.