Quote:
Originally Posted by powderjunkie
Except you have to work a full 8 years to get that money instead of 7. There are a bunch of possible scenarios you'd consider to find each person's tipping point:
1. Career ending injury
2. Buy out
3. League min. salary to chase a cup (~$850k at that point)
4. $2M AAV
5. $3M AAV
...
10. $8M AAV
11. $9M AAV
12. Decide to retire on your own terms
And then on each of those AAV's you might factor how likely you are to get any term at age 36 vs. 37. Also how the cap/salaries inflate over that time.
You could look at a lot of data, or just go with your gut to make some rough odds on each option...I'd say something like:
10% #1 or 2
20% #3/4/5
50% of an AAV $4-6M
20% AAV>$6M
For me, I'd be happy to get the total contract value within $4-6M to consider them 'equal' financially (before considering lifestyle/hockey fit). Who knows how Johnny looks at it? He's already "gambled" by not signing last summer or mid-season - was that about $$ or location? Probably a bit of both...
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For the hypothetical I was a commenting on, money on a retirement contract was the parameter. We all agree if non monetary issues get involved it’s a different decision. Retirement contract implies no more contracts afterwards to chase a cup or otherwise. And buyouts are a nil impact because they can happen in either scenario. So is retirement. Career ending injury favours the 8 year contract.
My only comment was that, apples to apples, an 8 year contract at anywhere around 10.5 is nigh unbeatable financially. It’s certainly not the $1m difference Cobra suggested.