Quote:
Originally Posted by GioforPM
Every player interview I’ve ever seen about money talks about total contract value. And for the difference you are talking about the Flames would be offering only 10M compared to 11.3 by another team. There’s no way that difference will exist. The difference between 7 and 8 years will more likely be 7 million, not one.
And the hypothetical was him taking the highest offer for a “retirement contract”. We all agree that if he values something else, it doesn’t matter.
The point is that just saying “why would he not see what’s out there” ignores the risk og giving up the highest deal just on pretty easy math and predictions on what contracts are available. What team is going to offer 12 million x 7 years? Because that’s what it takes to equal 10.5x8.
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Except you have to work a full 8 years to get that money instead of 7. There are a bunch of possible scenarios you'd consider to find each person's tipping point:
1. Career ending injury
2. Buy out
3. League min. salary to chase a cup (~$850k at that point)
4. $2M AAV
5. $3M AAV
...
10. $8M AAV
11. $9M AAV
12. Decide to retire on your own terms
And then on each of those AAV's you might factor how likely you are to get any term at age 36 vs. 37. Also how the cap/salaries inflate over that time.
You could look at a lot of data, or just go with your gut to make some rough odds on each option...I'd say something like:
10% #1 or 2
20% #3/4/5
50% of an AAV $4-6M
20% AAV>$6M
For me, I'd be happy to get the total contract value within $4-6M to consider them 'equal' financially (before considering lifestyle/hockey fit). Who knows how Johnny looks at it? He's already "gambled" by not signing last summer or mid-season - was that about $$ or location? Probably a bit of both...