Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina
You have to consider the following when it comes to the likelihood that this team re-builds
- Darryl Sutter is their coach
- Their core is in the prime of their years
- They have a #1 goalie in his prime
How many teams in that situation have triggered a re-build?
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Funny part is it does help to get high draft picks to build a cup winner - but tanking isn't really is how a team have actually gotten those picks.
The whole idea of "triggering" a re-build itself is kind of false - you just end up being bad one day and then you need to embrace it. That's how you get those picks. When you're having a bad season don't try to salvage it - just let the bad season happen.
Tampa didn't trigger a "rebuild" or "tank" when they got Stamkos or Hedman. They just ended up being bad with a roster that included St.Louis, Lecavalier, Boyle, and Richards for much of those two seasons.
Same thing with Colorado. Colorado didn't really trigger a "re-build" for Duchene. They made the playoffs in 07/08, didn't really trade anyone, but injuries in 08-09 led to a bad season and Duchene. They made the playoffs again in 09/10. They then sucked for a couple more years but it was more that they just got old. Really no different than the Flames at that time period with Iggy/Kipper. It wasn't really a tank but just the natural cycle of being bad.
They got lucky with Mackinnon. They had some injuries. ROR held out. Stastny had a terrible year. But it wasn't like they went and sold all their players and tanked - they didn't even really sell at the deadline. The Flames did more to sell at that deadline by moving Iggy and Bouwmeester, Colorado didn't sell at the deadline on anyone. But they win the lottery and get Mackinnon.
They finished with 3 fewer points than the Flames that season and that was the difference between Monahan and Mackinnon.
And honestly if the Flames were in Colorado's spot this fan base would have been calling for them to tear it down after the 16-17 season and trade everyone. It had been 8 years since drafting Duchene, 4 years with Mackinnon and they were last in the league again. How much did we make fun of the Oilers for that when they were drafting early again after already having Hall, RNH, and Yakupov? We thought we were ahead of where we were because of the magical 14-15 season, and then made the playoffs again in 16-17 but really that early success just held us back longer term.
But in that 16-17 season Duchene had 41 points in 77 games that season. Mackinnon had 53 in 82 and neither looked to live up to draft position. Hell the talk around here at the time was that Monahan was better than Mackinnon. They actually lose the lottery that year and pick 4th and that might be a blessing because maybe they don't take Makar if they pick at 1. This fanbase would have had both those guys on a stake and had wanted to move them if they had that bad of a season in Calgary.
Overall it really does take a lot of luck to build a winner in the NHL. You need to win the lottery to get one of the top 3 picks, then pick the right guy with your top 3 pick, develop them well, and even then it's probably 10 years from when you make that pick that you actually win. So you need to be patient and continue to build.
St.Louis - 11 years after Pietrangelo pick
Washington - 13 years after Ovechkin pick
Tampa - 12 years after Stamkos pick, 11 years after Hedman
Colorado - 13 years since Duchene pick, 9 years since Mackinnon pick
The part of the fan base that wants to "re-build" has been calling for the team to re-build since after the 18-19 season - which at the time was only 6 years after picking Monahan.
Even right now we're only really 9 years into this iteration of team since the post Iginla era started. Big problem was wasting assets on guys like Smith or Hamonic that were short term pieces that didn't help extend our window at all.
People get mad at Treliving for not signing Gaudreau earlier too, and we've all talked about his impending UFA being the end of this window, but both Tampa and Colorado were in the exact same situation prior to them winning a cup. Stamkos got right to the verge of UFA, but decided to stay in Tampa at the 11th hour. Same thing with Landeskog last year in Colorado.