From the 2013 lockout with a cap of 60M to 2019 with a cap of 79.5M pre-COVID, the increase was roughly 4-5% per year. It's not linear, it's not just based off of normal inflation obviously and things like the new TV deals or even which teams make the playoffs will have an effect but the big ones are the new teams. So the Kraken's inaugural season being during COVID with the "artificial" cap creates some pretty big uncertainty. Probably less so for NHL GM/owners and smart people, but if we look at a 4.5% increase since 2013 compared to the actual cap the numbers are:
2013- 60.0 - 60.0
2014- 64.3 - 62.7
2015- 69.0 - 65.2
2016- 71.4 - 68.5
2017- 73.0 - 71.6
2018- 75.0 - 74.7
2019- 79.5 - 78.1
2020- 81.5 - 81.6
2021- 81.5 - 85.3
2022- 81.5 - 89.2
2023- 82.5 - 93.2
2024- ??.? - 97.3
2025- ??.? - 101.8
Huge limitations and you can already see some pretty big discrepancy from the static 4.5% and real values (2015 for example).
This year was the highest revenue for the NHL. Makes sense when it's the first year it has 32 teams, would be a disaster if it wasn't.
But Calgary's the divisional leader with a super dynamic fun player anchoring the best line in the league and finishing second in the scoring race, Edmonton has a generational talent that fans of other teams flock to see and a duo that they believe rivals any since Crosby and Malkin, Toronto has a player scoring an unofficial 50 in 50 for the first time in a generation, Montreal's fresh off a Stanley Cup finals loss. Any other year they are all sellouts. But because of some stupid pangolin having sex with a bat or something, their home percentage attendance was abysmal; Calgary (74.1%), Edmonton (80.1%), Toronto (78.7%) and Montreal (72.8%). And with some weird flavour of the week restrictions, some games you couldn't even really drink. Less spending money for people recovering from CERB for novelties like merchandise. Even border issues hurting Detroit and particular Buffalo.
But once COVID deficit and ripple effects rights itself, would there be a team thinking that a 100M cap in a couple years is reasonable? Do the Yotes last in Arizona for many more seasons or in 4 or 5 years are they playing in Houston and actually bringing in some of that revenue? Do Flames get a new arena increasing revenue from the now-defunct press-level season ticket prices?
At first I thought Gaudreau at 10M+ for 8 years wouldn't be great for the Flames in the long run (even with Tkachuk signed too). One year with Lucic/Monahan making too much and only two more years of some solid contracts like Tanev, Hanifin, Dube and especially Lindholm, more or less limited their chances to that 2023-2024 season. After 2024 without any particular good contracts on the book, Markstrom on the wrong side of 35, and no real blue chip prospects to supplement the leaving/aging players, I thought a high priced 31 year old Gaudreau without any foreseeable cheap assets to build around would be problematic.
But now I think if you can lock in Gaudreau for 8 years now at any form of reasonable contract that it might be worth the risk. 5 years from now if the Flames suck but the cap has sky rocketed, maybe players like Matthew and Draisaitl are on 15M+ contracts and Gaudreau is still a very valuable trade piece.
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