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Originally Posted by VilleN
The 10M stat is meaningless. It should be percent of the cap - that's what actually matters. For example, in 2016 when the Pens won the cup the cap was 73M, Crosby cap hit was 8.7M or 11.9% of the cap, Malkin cap hit was 9.5M or 13%. 10M of the current 82.5M cap is 12%. So the number is irrelevant.
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There was a story on the Athletic a few weeks ago that goes over how unlucky Canadian teams have been over the decades in regards to winning a cup.
https://theathletic.com/3353799/2022...y-cup-drought/
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But still … 28 seasons? Somebody can’t step up and win one championship in all that time, if only so we don’t have to hear about it anymore?
On the surface, the odds are hard to fathom. There are seven Canadian franchises, nearly a full quarter of the NHL’s 32 teams. Those numbers have changed over the years, but the ratio has been roughly consistent, meaning you’d expect a Canadian team to win a Cup every four or five years. Instead, nothing.
Various attempts have been made over the years to calculate just how unlikely all this would be. We asked our own Dom Luszczyszyn to crunch the numbers, factoring in the quality of each season’s Canadian entries. Here’s what he came up with, using odds data from SportsOddsHistory.com:
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You’re reading that correctly. Since 1993, the numbers tell us that it would have been more likely for Canada to win 10 or more Stanley Cups than to win zero. And yet, here we are.
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There's a lot of parity in the league so the 10 million theory is likely nothing more than chance as I don't think salary structure has much of a bearing and it's more about bounces and luck which simply haven't gone the way of Canadian teams for some reason.