Quote:
Originally Posted by GioforPM
It’s not gonna be 9.5. But it doesn’t have to be far north of that to be tough to beat when it’s 8 years versus 7. 9.5 is 76m, which for any other team is 10.8. 10m x 8 would need 11.43 from another team to be beaten.
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A 7 year deal probably doesn't need to match/beat an 8 year deal, but at least be within 3-5M of the total value. Hard to put odds on it with so much uncertainty 7 years down the road, but I'd say 33% chance he could sign for 5M+, 33% chance he can sign for ~$2-3M, and 33% chance he's done playing entirely one way or another.
So the bigger question at that point comes to contract structure/signing bonuses. If a 7x11M has $70M in signing bonuses and the 8x$10M only has $40- $50M (especially if they drop off at the end) then the risk vs. reward equation changes substantially, and the 7 year offer might be more attractive despite the lower total value.
Of course SB's mostly guard against buyouts and work stoppages, whereas the bigger total value would be better in case of LTIRetirement.
Ovechkin, Pavelski, Kovalchuk, Fleury, Thornton, Marleau, Chara, Koivu, Markov, Goligoski, Gonchar, Datsyuk, Iginla, Rinne, etc. have all signed 5M+ contracts after age 34. It's definitely not something to bank on, but he could come out further ahead after leaving a few million on the table with a 7 year deal. It's noteworthy that most of the wingers on that list are goalscorers moreso than playmakers, though.