Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
Panarin was signed pre-Covid,
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Gaudreau will be signed post-covid in my mind and what I assume many GM's will be thinking too.
These are NHL GM's who recognize they often have shelf lives less than the contracts they give out. As we have become "normal" is there much reasons for GM's not to assume that things are now back on pace? I see it as Panarin signing with a 81.5M cap and Gaudreau signing with 82.5M cap, near negligible difference. Yes, when Panarin signed they probably were expecting it to be 90M+ now, but I bet whoever signs Gaudreau will expect the cap to be 90M+ in three years from now as well.
Covid has some impact with stalling the cap as there would be a lot more space if the cap had kept going up until this off-season, but I think that matters more for short-term contracts, not 7 year ones.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
It was also only 7 years, not 8, and he wasn't yet 28. He will be 34 in his final year. Johnny turns 29 this summer, and would be 36 in his final year.
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Yes, for clarity, I was talking about them being comparables if Gaudreau made it to UFA and signed 7 years. I think then they are the clear and most obvious comparables to the other 31 teams. But mostly I was just disagreeing with the premise that Panarin was some unexpected outlier, a Jeff Finger type contract coming out of nowhere. By all accounts the Blue Jackets, Islanders and Avalanche had offered more than the Rangers. When there's four teams offering him at least the contract he signed, I don't know how we land on "everyone in the league sees that contract as being too high."
Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
If you think Panarin and Gaudreau are fair comparables, then something about $1-2M less would make sense.
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So, again ignoring Calgary's 8 year signing ability, I would say "most" comparable but not entirely "fair". As good as Panarin was, he wasn't coming off a year Gaudreau had. Did everyone offering Panarin that 12.5M contract assume on a good team he would be a 110 point player like he almost instantly become? He was crushing it on a team without much firepower but he was still only 18th in scoring the off-season he signed (87 points in 79 games) I think he, somewhat and somehow, exceeded expectations immediately. Gaudreau on the other hand is a 110 point player already finishing tied for second.
But if there were four teams at least offering the 18th leading scorer winger Panarin 11.5M+ when the cap was 81.5M, why would there be no team offering Gaudreau, the second leading scorer, 11.5M+ when the cap is higher? Much like Panarin, I don't expect Gaudreau to sign with the team that simply offers him the highest AAV, but if he did, I would expect that to be at least 12M.