Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
I remain very surprised at how well Ukraine has managed to maintain the positions that it has for so long. I am equally surprised that Russia hasn't been totally crippled in terms of its ability to maintain the war spend, infrastructure supporting its troops and equipment yet.
A lot of the information that was presented by experts early on in the conflict has proved to be erroneous.
|
I think this conflict is a good example of just difficult it is to guess how a war is going to go. It's just really hard to know what the fighting ability of a certain military is when they're put in a situation they haven't been in before, and there's just so many factors. Logistics, motivation, leadership, the quality of information on both sides etc etc.
There's also multiple countries you need to make predictions on, not just the two sides in direct conflict. There's still some open questions about Russia's ability to commit manpower to this longterm. Few would have guessed Zelensky could become an international superstar who's charisma and media skills can sway public opinion outside his own country. I'm not sure anyone knew if Turkey was going to close the gates to the Black Sea or not, which has a big impact on what's going on at the southern front. How many would have guessed that Poland was ready to give billions of dollars worth in military aid (on top of all the other aid), actually cutting quite deep into it's own military stockpile.
How easy it was to guess that Ukraine would get significant help in repairing equipment from several neighboring countries, which has a big impact on it's ability to keep their equipment on the field.
So many factors. People will spend careers studying this war.
Oh, and there's increasing rumors that Putin's health is deteriorating. What happens if Putin dies? His last "public appearance" was televised almost two weeks ago, and there's claims that even that was put together from canned footage.