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OptimalTates · 06-03-2022, 02:02 PM

I think the Flames need to come to terms that this year was their shot and they missed it. It's the cap era, to win you need to get more value out of your players than they are "worth."

Monahan injury, Markstrom ####ting the bed, just not being a top tier contender built around generational talents, lots of reason to blame why it wasn't their year, but what gave them a chance this year was Gaudreau and Tkachuk making less than 14M while being 20M+ players while Mangiapane and Kylington emerged on baby contracts. They exceeded the cost "penalties" of Lucic and Monahan.

All of the remaining teams you can see where they are paying players much less than they are "worth."

MacKinnon and Kadri made less than 11M combined, they were on pace pro-rated for for 111 and 100 points respectively, easily 10M in "savings" from them alone. Avalanche still have MacKinnon making peanuts and Byram on ELC so they have at least another year.

New York's third line is filled with players on ELC or baby contracts. But Zibanejad and Fox have a combined cap hit of 6M, next year they jump up to 18M combined (and that's including some RFA years for Fox).

Oilers had Kane, Yammato, Nurse, Bouchard, and Puljujärvi making peanuts compared to what they are "worth" and will be making next year (except Bouchard will still be on ELC for one year). Then they still have Draisaitl making 8.5M when he's worth so much more, and I would even argue McDavid is worth more than the 12.5M.

Tampa gets the low-tax, competitive team, nice place to live bonus so even their UFA contracts are below fair-market-value like Kucherov's but in particular Point was making 3M less than his contract that kicks in next season, Hedman and Stamkos nearing the end of their contracts are also making much less than their worth, same with Sergachev.

You can get these cap-savings on players who are on ELCs, breakout after their contracts are signed (and/or have bridge deals with RFA years lowering AAV) or have had long enough contracts that the inflation has lowered them below the players "worth".

But pretty much every Stanley Cup team you can see some pretty obvious savings with most recently being the Kucherov LTIR play. The Capitals were paying Backstrom, Carlson and Wilson 12.5M, they are now making 22.4M. Penguins had Guentzel and Murray making nothing but also Crosby and Malkin were below fair value price. Kane and Toews last win was the last year of the 6M contracts before jumping to 10M, and their first was last year on the ELC contracts. Kings had Kopitar, Doughty and Brown (17M when they won, 27M today) but also Gaborik on a 50% retained transaction. Quick making nothing on their first win.

So where do the Flames get these "savings" from in the next couple years should Tkachuk and Gaudreau sign at reasonable contracts? It's pretty much Lindholm for current contracts. For ELC's the most likely one to exceed his cap-hit by a significant value (but not likely to actually do it) is Wolf but unlike pulling a Binnington where the Blues had an obvious weakness in goal, the Flames have Markstrom who is making 6M and Vezina candidate, so Wolf would have to overshoot that 6M while Markstrom is on the team anyways.

The bargain bin UFA players like Zadorov and Gudbrunson are great when they succeed but you can't rely on making much savings on those type of players.

I fear giving Gaudreau and Tkachuk the contracts they deserve will put the Flames squarely into the Blackhawks territory (post 10M contracts for Toews and Kane). Since then they haven't won a playoff series, and if not for the shutdown they would have missed the playoffs 5 years in a row despite the emergence of Debrincat and the free signing of Panarin.

06-03-2022, 02:02 PM	#2583
OptimalTates Powerplay Quarterback Join Date: Feb 2020 Exp:	I think the Flames need to come to terms that this year was their shot and they missed it. It's the cap era, to win you need to get more value out of your players than they are "worth." Monahan injury, Markstrom ####ting the bed, just not being a top tier contender built around generational talents, lots of reason to blame why it wasn't their year, but what gave them a chance this year was Gaudreau and Tkachuk making less than 14M while being 20M+ players while Mangiapane and Kylington emerged on baby contracts. They exceeded the cost "penalties" of Lucic and Monahan. All of the remaining teams you can see where they are paying players much less than they are "worth." MacKinnon and Kadri made less than 11M combined, they were on pace pro-rated for for 111 and 100 points respectively, easily 10M in "savings" from them alone. Avalanche still have MacKinnon making peanuts and Byram on ELC so they have at least another year. New York's third line is filled with players on ELC or baby contracts. But Zibanejad and Fox have a combined cap hit of 6M, next year they jump up to 18M combined (and that's including some RFA years for Fox). Oilers had Kane, Yammato, Nurse, Bouchard, and Puljujärvi making peanuts compared to what they are "worth" and will be making next year (except Bouchard will still be on ELC for one year). Then they still have Draisaitl making 8.5M when he's worth so much more, and I would even argue McDavid is worth more than the 12.5M. Tampa gets the low-tax, competitive team, nice place to live bonus so even their UFA contracts are below fair-market-value like Kucherov's but in particular Point was making 3M less than his contract that kicks in next season, Hedman and Stamkos nearing the end of their contracts are also making much less than their worth, same with Sergachev. You can get these cap-savings on players who are on ELCs, breakout after their contracts are signed (and/or have bridge deals with RFA years lowering AAV) or have had long enough contracts that the inflation has lowered them below the players "worth". But pretty much every Stanley Cup team you can see some pretty obvious savings with most recently being the Kucherov LTIR play. The Capitals were paying Backstrom, Carlson and Wilson 12.5M, they are now making 22.4M. Penguins had Guentzel and Murray making nothing but also Crosby and Malkin were below fair value price. Kane and Toews last win was the last year of the 6M contracts before jumping to 10M, and their first was last year on the ELC contracts. Kings had Kopitar, Doughty and Brown (17M when they won, 27M today) but also Gaborik on a 50% retained transaction. Quick making nothing on their first win. So where do the Flames get these "savings" from in the next couple years should Tkachuk and Gaudreau sign at reasonable contracts? It's pretty much Lindholm for current contracts. For ELC's the most likely one to exceed his cap-hit by a significant value (but not likely to actually do it) is Wolf but unlike pulling a Binnington where the Blues had an obvious weakness in goal, the Flames have Markstrom who is making 6M and Vezina candidate, so Wolf would have to overshoot that 6M while Markstrom is on the team anyways. The bargain bin UFA players like Zadorov and Gudbrunson are great when they succeed but you can't rely on making much savings on those type of players. I fear giving Gaudreau and Tkachuk the contracts they deserve will put the Flames squarely into the Blackhawks territory (post 10M contracts for Toews and Kane). Since then they haven't won a playoff series, and if not for the shutdown they would have missed the playoffs 5 years in a row despite the emergence of Debrincat and the free signing of Panarin.