[Firebot]

This war is 100 days old, and isn't going to finish in 100 days.

Ukraine isn't going to go out and swoop in and clear Ukraine of Russians in a week, a month, or perhaps even a year. But Russia has thrown everything it has, while Ukraine has significant reserves behind the main line and training new recruits to NATO standard.

3 months ago we were talking to a massive 40km long convoy going to Kyiv and being encircled, Kharkiv in severe danger of falling

Russia has to abandon multiple fronts to get to where they are right now, and are barely making any significant gains with the bulk of their military concentrated at a point.

That isn't sustainable, no matter how many minor battle victories they get over upcoming weeks. They have already lost.

We keep hearing of rumours of a major counteroffensive, which is likely to be mid June or early summer. It is clearly coming, but you won't know until it's already been launched for a day or two. If you look up the battle of Stalingrad, there was fierce defensive battling for the city, but behind the front lines lines Soviets had amassed an incredible amount of reserves which was used for a counteroffensive called Operation Uranus that surprised the flanks and encircled the main German and Romanian armies in Stalingrad, which was the turning point of the war.

Of course, if Russians give opportunities to be flanked earlier or lose more troops, Ukraine will certainly take the opportunity to inflict as much damage as they can with as little loss as possible.

Don't be shocked when a true mass counteroffensive seemingly come out of nowhere.