Quote:
Originally Posted by Kovaz
There's no such thing as a perfectly accurate model. They're based on long-term averages and there's a lot of noise within each bucket. Over a long enough sample, you expect it to average out, but in short samples it's very easy to have more dangerous-than-average chances within each bucket.
McDavid's OT goal was only worth 0.03 expected goals, according to Moneypuck. So based on that, we could give up this shot 30 times and only expect 1 goal against. 
I don't know about you, but if I had to be money on that I'd expect a lot more than 1 goal even if we had Dominik Hasek in net. |
That picture is showing the opposite of what you want it to, IMO.
1) fairly far out for a wrist shot (medium distance)
2) rushed by the defender
3) therefor 100% certainty that he is going to shoot
4) therefore the goalie can come out to cut off the angle
5) no screen or traffic of any kind
NHL goalies are saving that almost every time, unless the shooter has a perfect, bar-down or post-and-in shot. And McDavid didn't even do that. He shot it at Markstrom's glove. Why? Because Markstrom struggled with his glove the entire series.
That shot is rarely a goal on an NHL goalie who is that set for the shot. He simply muffed it.