Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814
Marner makes $10.6M.
If Johnny comes in at $11m, it’s still a good deal - he makes the entire thing run.
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Marner is a good comparison ($10.9 AVV), although obviously he signed his deal as a young RFA and it was his second contract so that's a fairly different situation and Dubas was operating differently than most GMs.
Career numbers per game:
Johnny vs Marner
Goals:
0.35 vs 0.32
Assists: 0.66 vs
0.74
Points: 1.01 vs
1.07
Very similar counting stats, but Marner plays almost 2.5 more minutes per game including 2 mins per game on the PK, unlike Gaudreau.
Patrick Kane is a better comparable (imo) for a few reasons. Kane turned 27 in November of the first season of his $10.5M AAV deal, which is much closer to Gaudreau's age (29 when next season starts). Kane's deal was also his third contract and he would have been a UFA had he not extended.
Gaudreau vs Kane (not career stats, but the stats over the contract preceding the biggest deal... also Kane extended a year early)
Goals: 0.35 vs
0.38
Assists:
0.66 vs 0.59
Points:
1.01 vs 0.97
Again, very close and certainly suggesting an 8 figure salary. Playoff performance isn't as different as you might expect as well:
Gaudreau vs Kane
Goals: 0.23 vs
0.33
Assists: 0.55 vs
0.56
Points: 0.77 vs
0.89
Kane signed for a total of $84M over 8 years. I could see Gaudreau potentially accepting a little less given that there are few years at the tail end where he probably won't be producing at an elite level anymore. Kane at the signing of the contract had also won the Calder and the Conn Smythe trophies (he went on to win the Art Ross, Hart, and Ted Lindsay the year before his extension kicked in). Edit: I was surprised by this, but Johnny also made more money over his first two contracts than Kane had (JG $46.2M vs PK $42.7M).
It's going to be really interesting to see where his contact lands. A lot of factors at play, like keeping the group together, being paid in US dollars with most expenses in CAD, distance from family, only 2 elite level seasons, playing for a strong team vs moving to a team with cap room for him, etc.
I was hoping he'd come in below $10M, but that is seeming pretty unlikely.