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Savvy27 · 05-28-2022, 07:21 PM

It's pretty promising to see that both Johnny and Tkachuk seem to have a preference to work something out and stay in town. Even if people aren't completely thrilled with how Chucky played in the playoffs, I think we can look at Johnny's playoff progression and realize that there is a development curve at play. As a reminder Johnny's 14 points were tied for 6th in playoff scoring when they were eliminated and his playoff production was a large concern in the recent past.

Having two players in the top 8 scoring (regular season) would be a great starting point going forward.

It's going to be expensive but if you look at other top duos I would expect their combined deals to fall somewhere in the middle of $15.9M-$22.5M:
Matthews and Marner - $22.5M
McDavid and Draisaitl - $21.0M
Ovechkin and Backstrom - $18.7M
Rantanen and Landeskog - $16.25M (MacKinnon still on insane discount deal til 22/23)
Huberdeau and Barkov - $15.9M

Some of those contracts are dated, so I think we can probably assume the number will be closer to the high end. I'm going to estimate $19.5M.

Incuding Monahan, the Flames have $26.925M in cap space with this and subtracting the $19.5M leaves us with $7.425M in cap room with the following:
Gaudreau - Lindholm - Tkachuk
________ - Backlund - Coleman
Dube - Monahan - Toffoli
Lucic - _______ - ________

Hanifin - Andersson
______ - Tanev
______ - ______

Markstrom
Vladar

Those are a lot of blanks and Mangiapane along with Kylington are going to use up what is left. And I think Mackey will make the team next season.
Mangiapane $5M + Kylington $2.425M

Gaudreau - Lindholm - Tkachuk
Mangiapane - Backlund - Coleman
Dube - Monahan - Toffoli
Lucic - _______ - ________

Hanifin - Andersson
Kylington - Tanev
Mackey - Stone

Even if the remaining spots are taken up by league minimum players (I used Ruzicka and Lewis on the 4th line and Mackey and Stone on the 3rd pair), the Flames are at $84,537,500 ($2,037,500 over the cap) with 1 or two roster spots unfilled.

A glaring issue is that the bottom six has Monahan ($6.375M), Toffoli ($4.25M) and Lucic ($5.25M) making too much money for their roles. Arguably, Toffoli should be excluded from this since he plays on the PP and PK and his salary is the lowest of the 3.

Buying out Monahan gives the team about $4M in cap space, which would solve a lot of problems.
Buying out Lucic doesn't help much, only about $600k, which doesn't solve anything on its own.

Trading Toffoli or Dube could be the move.

Trading Dube for picks or prospects would create $2.3M and I think makes some sense. He is a good player but not close to a top 6 role. There is a pretty obvious successor in Jakob Pelletier as well. While this does not address the problem of too much money in the bottom six, it does provide a path to keep Gaudreau and Tkachuk without buying out or trading Monahan or Lucic who are both important players for the teams chemistry.

Also, for this to work I think Valimaki may need to be traded as well. He could fit if he makes the team over Mackey, but I am not going to include him because he seems like a guy that might need a change of scenery and doesn't have the faith of the coach.

I'm nervous about trying to re-sign Johnny and Chucky and also buying out Monahan. If the team is looking to get a hometown discount of sorts from either of them, it might be an issue to cut loose a beloved guy like Monahan after some injury plagued years.

Anyways, after going through it all and taking into consideration that the Flames are going to have their AHL team playing in Calgary here is my guess at the roster next season, turns out that $19.5M still doesn't work so I will be asking Johnny and Chucky to take a slight discount:

Gaudreau $9.25M - Lindholm $4.85M - Tkachuk $9.25M
Mangiapane $5M - Backlund $5.35M - Coleman $4.9M
Pelletier $0.863M - Monahan $6.375M - Toffoli $4.25M
Lucic $5.25M - Ruzicka $0.75M - Lewis $0.75M

Hanifin $4.95M - Andersson $4.55M
Kylington $2.425M - Tanev $4.5M
Mackey $0.9125 - Stone $0.75M

Markstrom $6M
Vladar 0.75M

Forwards: $56,838,333
Defense: $18,087,500
Goalies: $6,750,000

Total cap hit: $81,675,833

Lastly, with Tanev saying that he is looking at a 4-6 month recovery period, they may stick him on the LTIR and use his $4.5M rather than moves like trading Valimaki and Dube.

Thanks for reading if you made it this far!

05-28-2022, 07:21 PM	#158
Savvy27 #1 Goaltender Join Date: Sep 2002 Exp:	It's pretty promising to see that both Johnny and Tkachuk seem to have a preference to work something out and stay in town. Even if people aren't completely thrilled with how Chucky played in the playoffs, I think we can look at Johnny's playoff progression and realize that there is a development curve at play. As a reminder Johnny's 14 points were tied for 6th in playoff scoring when they were eliminated and his playoff production was a large concern in the recent past. Having two players in the top 8 scoring (regular season) would be a great starting point going forward. It's going to be expensive but if you look at other top duos I would expect their combined deals to fall somewhere in the middle of $15.9M-$22.5M: Matthews and Marner - $22.5M McDavid and Draisaitl - $21.0M Ovechkin and Backstrom - $18.7M Rantanen and Landeskog - $16.25M (MacKinnon still on insane discount deal til 22/23) Huberdeau and Barkov - $15.9M Some of those contracts are dated, so I think we can probably assume the number will be closer to the high end. I'm going to estimate $19.5M. Incuding Monahan, the Flames have $26.925M in cap space with this and subtracting the $19.5M leaves us with $7.425M in cap room with the following: Gaudreau - Lindholm - Tkachuk ________ - Backlund - Coleman Dube - Monahan - Toffoli Lucic - _______ - ________ Hanifin - Andersson ______ - Tanev ______ - ______ Markstrom Vladar Those are a lot of blanks and Mangiapane along with Kylington are going to use up what is left. And I think Mackey will make the team next season. Mangiapane $5M + Kylington $2.425M Gaudreau - Lindholm - Tkachuk Mangiapane - Backlund - Coleman Dube - Monahan - Toffoli Lucic - _______ - ________ Hanifin - Andersson Kylington - Tanev Mackey - Stone Even if the remaining spots are taken up by league minimum players (I used Ruzicka and Lewis on the 4th line and Mackey and Stone on the 3rd pair), the Flames are at $84,537,500 ($2,037,500 over the cap) with 1 or two roster spots unfilled. A glaring issue is that the bottom six has Monahan ($6.375M), Toffoli ($4.25M) and Lucic ($5.25M) making too much money for their roles. Arguably, Toffoli should be excluded from this since he plays on the PP and PK and his salary is the lowest of the 3. Buying out Monahan gives the team about $4M in cap space, which would solve a lot of problems. Buying out Lucic doesn't help much, only about $600k, which doesn't solve anything on its own. Trading Toffoli or Dube could be the move. Trading Dube for picks or prospects would create $2.3M and I think makes some sense. He is a good player but not close to a top 6 role. There is a pretty obvious successor in Jakob Pelletier as well. While this does not address the problem of too much money in the bottom six, it does provide a path to keep Gaudreau and Tkachuk without buying out or trading Monahan or Lucic who are both important players for the teams chemistry. Also, for this to work I think Valimaki may need to be traded as well. He could fit if he makes the team over Mackey, but I am not going to include him because he seems like a guy that might need a change of scenery and doesn't have the faith of the coach. I'm nervous about trying to re-sign Johnny and Chucky and also buying out Monahan. If the team is looking to get a hometown discount of sorts from either of them, it might be an issue to cut loose a beloved guy like Monahan after some injury plagued years. Anyways, after going through it all and taking into consideration that the Flames are going to have their AHL team playing in Calgary here is my guess at the roster next season, turns out that $19.5M still doesn't work so I will be asking Johnny and Chucky to take a slight discount: Gaudreau $9.25M - Lindholm $4.85M - Tkachuk $9.25M Mangiapane $5M - Backlund $5.35M - Coleman $4.9M Pelletier $0.863M - Monahan $6.375M - Toffoli $4.25M Lucic $5.25M - Ruzicka $0.75M - Lewis $0.75M Hanifin $4.95M - Andersson $4.55M Kylington $2.425M - Tanev $4.5M Mackey $0.9125 - Stone $0.75M Markstrom $6M Vladar 0.75M Forwards: $56,838,333 Defense: $18,087,500 Goalies: $6,750,000 Total cap hit: $81,675,833 Lastly, with Tanev saying that he is looking at a 4-6 month recovery period, they may stick him on the LTIR and use his $4.5M rather than moves like trading Valimaki and Dube. Thanks for reading if you made it this far!