Quote:
Originally Posted by Kovaz
There's no such thing as a perfectly accurate model. They're based on long-term averages and there's a lot of noise within each bucket. Over a long enough sample, you expect it to average out, but in short samples it's very easy to have more dangerous-than-average chances within each bucket.
McDavid's OT goal was only worth 0.03 expected goals, according to Moneypuck. So based on that, we could give up this shot 30 times and only expect 1 goal against. 
I don't know about you, but if I had to be money on that I'd expect a lot more than 1 goal even if we had Dominik Hasek in net. |
An unobstructed shot from the top of the cirlcle?
Sorry, but that should be stopped 30 times out of 31. If you "should" score from there, wouldn't you see it in shoot-outs? lol