Quote:
Originally Posted by Infinit47
It translates into Markstrom giving up like 7 goals more than he should have vs Smith giving up like an additional 2.
5 goal swing in a 5 game series.
If Markstrom matches Smith we are still playing.
Although Smith had a goal called back that should clearly have counted, so there is that.
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There's no such thing as a perfectly accurate model. They're based on long-term averages and there's a lot of noise within each bucket. Over a long enough sample, you expect it to average out, but in short samples it's very easy to have more dangerous-than-average chances within each bucket.
McDavid's OT goal was only worth 0.03 expected goals, according to Moneypuck. So based on that, we could give up this shot 30 times and only expect 1 goal against.
I don't know about you, but if I had to be money on that I'd expect a lot more than 1 goal even if we had Dominik Hasek in net.