Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames
How can you say there is a very high likelihood? What do you base this on?
The Cuban Missile Crisis was "high likelihood". This isn't.
Russia isn't going to launch nukes indiscriminately at major Western cities because Finland joins NATO.
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I think that Putin is the kind of sociopath and psychopath that he doesn't fear using them and I think that he is getting boxed into a corner. You are using logic and reasoning lead you to the rationale outcome that nuclear war is a no-win scenario for Putin and the Russians. But the Russians don't think like westerners and the more active Europe gets in deliberately showing up Putin and not giving him a way out, only lends itself more and more to the inevitable conclusion that hey, maybe the world just isn't worth living in for anybody anyway.
When you box and corner in somebody like Putin, I think you are playing with fire when they are sabre rattling every week about launching nukes because eventually? Eventually he'll just have to show you to be taken seriously.
Sometimes people don't like to think scary things are possible because they don't want to believe scary things are possible and will rationalize themselves into every possible "logical" outcome as to why something won't happen. This is a well known phenomenon and a similar example would be where I said 2 years ago the US is going to obviously head into a civil war on current trajectory, everybody laughed at me then the Capital Riots happened. All that's left for that one now is Trump to win the next election (looking promising there) and then he will never leave office because the Republican party has abandoned democracy and boom, there ya go.
These things happen and just because it hasn't happened in our lifetime doesn't mean these types of mass conflict events can't happen. People today like to think they're enlightened or above human nature when they're the same ####ing group of idiots as they used to be, just with more dangerous weapons.