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Originally Posted by zamler
I've read 100x versions of the competition is coming yet Tesla continues to grow sales and revenue faster than anyone else. But as I always say if you have conviction then buy shares in the companies you think are going to overtake Tesla. The headline alone would spike said companies stock.
Truth is saying company X is going to best Tesla is wish fulfillment not based on fundamentals. Been that way for at least 5 years.
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You are treating this like a sporting event and you are rooting your favourite team. That is not how it works with stock prices.
Their stock price has built in A #### TON of growth. I am saying that growth rate is going to be severely challenged, a lot quicker than some people think.
That doesn't mean they won't keep selling cars. It doesn't mean they won't keep growing. But in order to justify the current stock price, their growth has to continue to be exponential. And that is becoming increasingly unlikely, as other manufacturers bring more and more EVs to market.
Look at VW's numbers - they now have EVs on multiple platforms, and covering the spectrum with respect to price point. And their market share is expanding very rapidly (500,000 EVs last year, when they were all but non-existent, 4 or 5 years ago).
And that is just one company. EVERY company is entering the market. It is simple math - the growth that is priced into Tesla's stock, is just not going to be achievable.
The fact that people have been saying it for a long time is not proof that it won't become true.