Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
Not sure what you're saying with the first line. As to the second, I disagree.
I am not sure why you're not following what I am saying here. Let's look at an example.
You have 10 events where there is a shooter in the high danger area. In scenario 1, that player shoots 10 times. The result: close to 10 high danger chances (a couple probably get blocked). In scenario 2, that player chooses to pass every time. In doing so, some of the passes will not connect, therefore there will be fewer high danger chances recorded. However, when the pass connects, there is a higher likelihood of a goal.
In scenario 1, the team is generating more high danger chances, but will have a lower rate of success. In scenario 2, they will have fewer chances, but a high rate of success (I am not saying more goals overall, I am saying a higher shooting percentage).
That, in an exaggerated state, is what is going on with the Flames right now. In the regular season, they went with the pass a lot. And it worked for them. In this series, they have been shooting from everywhere.
Result: high danger shot totals are there, but their shooting percentage is down, because it is easier for the goalie to save a direct shot than a cross-crease pass shot.
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I think the answer is who's doing it, because the totals are the same.
To record a high danger event you need a shot from the homeplate with one of the following happening
- pass into the home plate area and a shot attempt
- deflection inside the home plate
- rebound inside the home plate
So it's not like they're just carrying it into the home plate area and shooting it more often, because their high danger totals suggest that's true.
But where we have some common ground I think? Who's doing it.
In the regular season the top line was 1-2-3 in HD/60. Playoffs not even close ... middle six is getting it done for chance generation and not scoring.
Regular season the top line was generating an average of 14.5 HD60 per game five on five. Playoffs they are about 8.0
Middle six in the regular season averaged about 11, playoffs 15.5
So yeah the team itself no real change, but you have a heck of a point with the top line.