Quote:
Originally Posted by Hakan
Iran's interests are being ignored in this thread which makes for an interesting analysis.
Why did Iran significantly increase the conflict with their abduction of British sailors? Are they baiting someone into a fight? If not, what are their motives?
The key to understanding this situation rests with Iran's motives not the American's.
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I don't think it's baiting someone into a fight. Firstly, they targeted Brits, when targeting Americans would have been far more efficient. They know that because of the 'measured response' outcry from the west during the recent Lebanon invasion, it's unlikely that anyone will invade Iran over these hostages. And unlike the west, you don't need bait someone into attacking you to claim the moral high-ground.
I think the most likely is that this is simply the IRG getting revenge for the IRG forces that were captured in Iraq; they're known for being very vendictive. If that's the case, this probably was a military decision made without the knowledge of high levels of government, though the government is now taking advantage of the situation for their own political/diplomatic agenda. To me, it's suspicious that they were captured by IRG boats. You'd expect the standard Iranian navy would be responsible for border patrol-type duties, but the presence of the IRG suggests that this was more calculated.
If this was an order that came from the top, the intent was probably to undermine resolve and support for the mission in Britain. As much as this will momentarily unify Britain's resolve in the region, that resolve could deflate very quickly once the situation is diffused. And in addition to attempting to get the Brits to leave, Khamenei also has a vested interest in portraying the Brits as being just as reckless and arrogant as the Americans.