If it's about who is most valuable to his team, you kind of have to start off with the hypothetical of which team is worst without that top player. Of the candidate teams, Nashville, Edmonton, and New York are the worst without their candidates.
McDavid loses out because it's not actually clear he's the best player on his own team IMO. Josi is the best player on his team, but the team didn't exactly shine, so that knocks him down a peg. The Rangers have Kreider and Fox, but otherwise they look pretty weak to me, and could be on the outside looking in if not for their goalie. But that said, he didn't play a ton of games.
I think between the Flames, Leafs, and cats, Calgary would be the most impacted by the loss of their candidate - likely not making the playoffs. Florida and Toronto would be substantially worse, but still very competitive teams.
So, Johnny and Shesterkin if the spirit of the award is maintained. Matthews if it's just down to who had the most impressive individual season.
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