Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
When you're above expected splits for 20 games or so, you're fortunate.
When you run above expected splits - consistently - for 80 games, you had a great year.
Can you have a great year without being fortunate? No, you need things to go your way.
But you can't dismiss all deviations from expected as 'fortunate'. Sometimes it's because you kicked ass. And the top line, this year, kicked ass. Saying they were fortunate, and produced above expected, is just not giving them the credit they deserve.
Can they do that again next year? Unlikely. But that doesn't mean they aren't full marks for this year. They have been, hands down, and all season long, the best line in the game. Consistently. Saying they have been fortunate because they have produced above expected, is missing the forest for the trees.
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I think we're kind of splitting hairs here aren't we?
You're pretty much saying the same thing. You're saying of course there's some luck involved, and you wonder if they can repeat it next year.
The Flames top line has an excellent expected goal split, so there's nothing fluke about them being a top line. But their actual results are way over the top and aren't completely supported by what they generate. They've had a good season where pucks are going in, and staying out when they're in their own zone.
Doesn't mean they're not a great line at all.
It's the same with Edmonton's elite players. I've stop suggesting it's not repeatable because it has been ... skill beats those numbers and that's certainly the case for the Flames.
But Johnny Gaudreau has the highest GF60 of any forward in the last three seasons, that's quite a leap.