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Old 04-19-2022, 12:50 PM   #3542
CaptainYooh
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Energy companies should be doing well in the inflationary and interest-rising environment, because they supply necessities in-sync with rising demand (economic recovery) at rising prices (over-compensating their higher production costs), AND they traditionally borrow very little (thus, little affected by capital borrowing costs).

REITs do borrow approximately 50% of their capital on average. This means that they should be negatively affected by increasing interest rates. But they also do well, because real estate tends to appreciate during economic recovery and high inflation more than it loses due to higher borrowing costs.

In the short run, looks like both categories should do well in 2022-23.

In the long run (30 years?), energy stocks could be brought to near-zero, if governments across the world succeed in making fossil fuels magically disappear somehow. REITs are not immune to failure as well. I don't think we will see interest rates in 17-20%, like we did in the late 80's-early 90's (although, this is not impossible). But the whole aspect of shifting paradigms in office and retail real estate asset classes will at some point start devaluing the REITs with those assets in a big way. The question is when.
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