Quote:
Originally Posted by Hack&Lube
I was interested and watched several others of his lectures as well as reading comments and his background sources and I'm not convinced. I think he's got some good points and starting data but he has a penchant for hyperbole and dramatic prognostication.
In his other lecture, he's also saying that China is "done" and will be "horrific" by 2030 because of a demographic collapse from one-child policies.
Russia and China will both have demographic pressures but nothing to the extent that this guy is predicting. His underlying information is also super flawed, he makes easily disprovable claims such as Gorchov being from the KGB and extrapolates that Russia is only ruled and can only be ruled by a pool of 150 people from the KGB and are doomed as a nation because of that.
It's an attractive message if you are hoping for Ukrainian success but take it with a grain of salt. Both the Russian and Chinese nations will be here as influential powers for decades to come.
|
The prognostication is a little dramatic, especially when it comes to China. Not enough people, or people of draftable age, isn't a problem for them especially if they stay out of conflicts. I can see his predictions about Russia being more accurate though, especially when you factor in emigration and relatively low rates of immigration.
He did however say in 2014 that if Russia couldn't successfully bring Ukraine under their sphere of control, that they would have to conquer them in 8 years. That prognostication was pretty spot on.