Finland has indeed all but decided they would like to join NATO, at least as far as public opinion goes.
However, that would require the approval of every current NATO country, which includes Hungary.
Hungary of course is currently ruled by Viktor Orbán, coming off a fresh election victory. Orbán is an ultra-conservative authoritarian who has been very friendly with Putin, and who was already throwing wrenches in Ukraine's plans to create ties to the EU and NATO, very likely for Putin's benefit.
There have been signs that Orbán might consider abandoning Putin as a weakening ally, but the problem for him is that his relationships with much of EU is already extremely bad due to the corruption and ultra-conservative politics of Hungary under his leadership. So there might not be much for him to gain in trying to appease west, and allowing Finland to join NATO could very well ruin his relationship with his former strongest ally.
I'm sure there's a ton of backroom diplomacy and armwrestling going on that's not public knowledge over this topic.
There's speculation that if Hungary declares (unofficially) that it won't let new countries join NATO, Finland and Sweden will hold back their applications so the infighting in NATO doesn't become public, as now is not a good time for that.
It's also worth noting that the current Finnish coalition government includes pretty much all the most NATO-sceptical parties, while the most pro-NATO major parties are in the opposition. The tradition of Finnish politics suggests that in a massive longterm decision like this, a lot of effort is put into trying to find a large consensus that surpasses current government-opposition lines though, and in general I think the public atmosphere is such that refusing to send in a NATO application might be political suicide.
(But there's also some big domestic issues that the government is occupied with.)
Last edited by Itse; 04-16-2022 at 01:40 PM.
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